OK, so I said I would have updates “an hour or so from now” at 12:20 am; it is now 2:06 am. So, I will now take stock at a more-leisurely pace in a separate entry. For this following these updates, sorry about the holdup, but I will try to include some more-meaningful takeaways than were possible while I was…well, still simply enjoying the collective euphoria of what we had just accomplished.
Fine, I’m still experiencing that euphoria. But now I’m looking more-closely at the numbers and taking assessments. And at the time of this writing, you are by probability asleep, whoever you are.
I wasn’t able to get on any sooner–because I was out working for the Democratic Party. Preliminary results clearly indicate the Democratic Party is having a good night. The Democrats have successfully defended the Senate seat in Connecticut, and have picked up seats in Massachusetts, Indiana, and (contingent on the independent King’s mood) Maine.
Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin have already been called for President Obama. If Obama wins Virginia or Florida, Governor Romney is probably going to have an early night. With 87% of precincts reporting in, President Obama is apparently leading in Florida by about 40,000 votes.
If anything, the Democratic Party is doing better than I expected tonight.
10:34 pm: I’m on the New York Times’ “512 Ways to Win” application. I’m calling Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin for President Obama. I’m being forgiving of Romney and leaving the huge swing State of Florida, which he needs, on the table with a fair Obama lead. According the this app., President Obama has 61 ways to win and Governor Romney has 3 ways to win.
Of course, this is simple prospects; this does not reflect the probability of these different possibilities. It is implausible that Governor Romney will win the Election.
10:41 pm: With 62% of precincts reporting, Ohio is currently registering for President Obama, 50%-48%. That is in-line with the more-modest polls showing him in the lead, but that’s with enough precincts left to report in that, depending on what parts of the State they’re from (Republican south? Democratic north?), the result could still go either way in theory. Again, that’s not very likely given the consistency with which the polls have predicted more-or-less this result for weeks.
10:46 pm: I’m at the local Democratic Party…um, party. They just called-out that The Media is calling New Jersey for President Obama. Woooooow.
10:52 pm: With 76% of precincts reporting, Democrat Tim Kaine leads Republican George Allen 51%-49% in the US Senate race in Virginia. That’s unbearably close, but with 3/4 of the precincts in, statewide races tend to be representative. Shooting from the hip I’d say Virginia has an very-narrow Republican lean in national politics. Democrats should sweep the contested races there if they are having a good night nationwide. This isn’t a very-scientific theory, admittedly.
10:50 pm: With 90% of precincts reporting, President Obama is winning Florida by 36,405 votes (exactly?). Anyway, this may not seem like a major update, but this State is huge and crucial to a Romney victory. Governor Romney needs Florida to win. This State is getting close to a call.
You know what? I’m not exactly prestigious media, but I’m ready to call it now: Obama wins re-election.
11:08 pm: MSNBC.com, by no means a Conservative media outlet: “Obama, Romney locked in tight race.” Except they aren’t.
11:10 pm: Ohio, Florida called for President Obama. It’s over. It’s academic now.
11:14 pm: I am deafened by the excitement at my local Democratic headquarters. Ohio has been called for President Obama by another outlet.
Mitt Romney, you were lots of fun. Thanks for not being anything more than that at the national level.
11:25 pm: Anyway, the down-ballot elections are important, too. Mike Pence, a Conservative Congressman, has been elected Governor of his home State of Indiana. No big surprise there. The Republicans are going to keep all their redoubts tonight. They really did very, very well for themselves in the House of Representatives and in the interior States in 2010. They really have very little to worry about in most of those places. The Republican Party remains the down-ballot party of choice.
In New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan has won the election for Governor. Even though New Hampshire’s State politics are extremely-Conservative right now, I was expecting this result. (The previous Governor was a Democrat, and very-popular, and the race had had a tiny Democratic lean, and President Obama was polling in the lead in that State.) But this race was called earlier than I’d expected.
11:35 pm: Damn, it’s hard to socialize at a party function! I’m missing a lot of news! With 92.4% of the precincts reporting, President Obama is leading Governor Romney in Virginia by 14,786 votes. That’s too close to call officially, but it corresponds, once again with the President’s light but stable lead there.
I told you guys this wasn’t really close…
11:44 pm:Only 40.1% of the precincts are reporting, but they’re calling the Maine race for the US Senate for Angus King, the independent who doesn’t like Republicans, 54%-29.5% (R)-13.6% (D). That’s quite a lead; he is trusted for being a non-partisan–and a popular former Governor. Popular Governors can go a long, long way in national politics.
11:51 pm: I don’t want to get my hopes up–but with 83.3% of the precincts reporting-in, Democrat Heidi Heitkamp is beating Republican Rick Berg in North Dakota–“the State with the oil”–50.5%-49.5%.
Yes, that is a very-close result, but North Dakota has a small population and there aren’t a whole hell of a lot of large election districts left to report in. The Democrats could easily increase their seats in the Senate tonight.
Ladies and gentlemen, it doesn’t come-through in print, but I am giddy with excitement right now. I don’t know, just trust me, I’m giddy.
Midnight: While I wasn’t looking, CNN called Virginia for Democratic former Governor and Party Chairman Tim Kaine, 51%-49%.
12:20 am: I’m working for the Party; what can I say? I will have updates later–like, an hour from now. Really.